Steve Rosenbloom = Idiot

Sometimes mainstream media members like to write things just to rile up the internet folks, and this posting by Steve Rosenbloom (Let’s Play Odds Ball: Sox are in, Cubs are Out) is no exception. It is an obvious bait that Cubs and Sox fans took in an effort to get people to slam each other (see the nearly 200 comments made, or roughly 180 more than a normal blog post gets).

The basic premise of his blog post is that the Sox are a lock for the playoffs because “almost two-thirds of the teams that lead their divisions on the Memorial Day weekend go on to win them.” Also, since 1/3 of the teams who DO lead on Memorial Day will ultimately lose the division, the Cubs and Tampa Rays are the most likely candidates to be the 1/3 that DOESN’T win the division. The article has no factual support and makes little sense, and contrary to Rosenbloom’s poorly written blog post, here’s why the Cubs WILL win the division.

1. The Cubs are the only team in Major League Baseball that has not lost more than 3 games in a row this season.

To borrow Joe Morgan’s favorite word, the Cubs are consistently consistent. They have had two six-game winning streaks, a four-game winning streak, and have yet to lose more than 3 straight 52 games into the season. Not too shabby, and it speaks to the ability of the club to turn the page after tough losses (especially this week after blowing two winnable games in Pittsburgh and rebounding to sweep the Dodgers).

2. The Cubs win at home and are excelling against a relatively tough schedule.

The Cubs are already 22-8 at home this season (ridiculous .733 winning percentage), and last year’s 2007 NL Division Champions all had strong home winning percentages (D-backs at .617, Cubs at .543 and the Phillies at .580). In addition, the Cubs have played the ninth-toughest schedule in MLB according to ESPN.com. Although critics will argue that the Cubs are 9-3 against the Pirates, who usually suck, the Pirates have a better record this season than 11 other teams and are 24-26, only one game worse than the NY Yankees.

Coming off a 3-game sweep of the undermanned Dodgers, it looks like the Cubs are for real. June should be an interesting month though, as the Cubs will play the White Sox six times and play 13 of their first 17 games in June on the road. Regardless of the tough road stretch, I hope we get to keep hearing this song:

Ryan Theriot: Fluke or for Real

Browsing through my latest edition of Sports Illustrated, I found an interesting story from Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus, who broke down his “The All-Bizarro Team,” which consists of MLB players who have jumped out to red-hot starts in the first two months of the season. One of the members of the all-Bizarro Team was none other than Cubs’ shortstop Ryan Theriot, who is off to a .312/.392/.391 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) start for the first-place Cubs (tied with the Cardinals as of 5/25). In it he wrote:

“Theriot has fooled us before. He was hitting more than .300 as late as May 19 last year before eventually slumping to .266. A player who relies heavily as Theriot does on singles (81% of his hits) is unlikely to sustain such as fast start, though Theriot’s improved plate discipline should keep him from slipping too far.”

Silver’s verdict was that Theriot’s hot start was a “Fluke,” although he did point out that Theriot should not slip too far. Do I agree with this? Yes and no. Here why I disagree:

1. Last season was Theriot’s first full season in the major leagues, where he played in 148 games. Yes, Theriot did slump down the stretch last season (hitting .202 in September and October) and ended up batting .266/.326/.346 for the year, but it was the first time in his professional career that Theriot played in more than 130 games (which he did in 2002 as a member of the Lansing Lugnuts). It’s safe to say Theriot hit the wall down the stretch, but this year he turned 28, so hopefully he will be peaking this season and understands what it takes to play 162 games. Is it likely Theriot will keep his BA above .300 for the whole year? Unlikely, but I don’t expect him to hit .266. Expect .280-.290 from him because …

2. Theriot excelled in his final two minor league stops. Although there isn’t always a strong correlation between minor league and major league performance, Theriot’s final two seasons in the minor leagues suggest that he has the ability to hit above .300. In 2005 at AA West Tennessee (120 games), Theriot hit .304/.369/.391 and put up a nearly identical stat line during the 2006 season in 73 games at AAA Iowa (.304/. 367/.379) before being called up to the Cubs. So is this hot start somewhat of a surprise? Yes, but he did shows flashes of potential in the minors.

However, there is a definite reason to put faith in Silver’s predictions, including that fact that:

1. Theriot is a career .271 hitter in the minor leagues. Theriot’s final two stops in the minor leagues (AA West Tennessee and AAA Iowa) were his two best seasons in the minors, and prior to those two seasons of .300+ batting, Theriot never hit above .273 at any of his previous minor league stops. The only thing that is positive is that this .273 was in 2004 with the Daytona Cubs, which suggests that the light might have come on for Theriot in his final three minor league seasons. If you take out his first three minor league seasons, Theriot’s career batting average from 2004-06 (spanning 1,058 at-bats) is .294, which is something a lot of Cubs fans would love to see.

It is necessary to point out that Theriot’s pitches-per plate appearance are up from last season (3.53 in 2007 and 3.68 in 2008), and he already has drawn 23 walks after getting 49 all of last season. As a Cubs fan, I hope Theriot can keep up his hot start, but I’m expecting a line near .280/.355/.375. It’s not spectacular, but considering the other bats around him, it might be enough to get the Cubs in the postseason. Is Silver right in that Theriot is a fluke? Yes and no. He won’t hit .320, but he won’t be a .260 hitter either.

Another Cubs Blog?

Just when you thought the internet couldn’t pump out any more Cubs blogs, another one has come along to satisfy the needs of the dedicated legions of Chicago Cubs fans. Frankly, this blog will be nowhere near the quality of other Cubs blogs like Hire Jim Essian or Desipio, but hopefully it will give some insight into the mind of a somewhat deranged Cubs fan and provide some humor and analysis about the Chicago Cubs franchise.

Now, on to answering the two burning questions on the minds of the dozens of people who have stumbled upon this blog. First, why am I putting up another Cubs blog? Well, because I have to if I want to graduate and earn my master’s degree. As part of my COM 660: Technology and Communication class, I am required to blog about a topic of my choice. Since my one main passion in life is following the debacle wondrously successful franchise known as the Chicago Cubs (I listen to nearly every game on MLB Radio and read up on the Chicago Tribune sports section most every day), this seemed like a natural topic to blog about.

But the second question you probably have is: why the heck is your blog named “The Legions of Les Lancaster?” There are two reasons for this random blog title. First, I have always been fascinated with the random Caucasian middle relief pitchers the Cubs have trotted out in my 20 years following the team. Bob Scanlan, Turk Wendell, Paul Assenmacher, and Shawn Boskie are some of my favorite random middle relievers, and Les Lancaster is no exception. However, the reason this blog is named after Lancaster is because he had a nice mullet that he played a vital role on the Cubs’ 1989 East Division Championship team. During the 1989 season, Lancaster appeared in 42 games (72. 7 innings pitched) and finished 4-2 with 8 saves and a team-best 1.36 ERA.

Expect about 2-3 blog posts per week about the Cubs (both past and present) and leave any feedback you have.