Browsing through my latest edition of Sports Illustrated, I found an interesting story from Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus, who broke down his “The All-Bizarro Team,” which consists of MLB players who have jumped out to red-hot starts in the first two months of the season. One of the members of the all-Bizarro Team was none other than Cubs’ shortstop Ryan Theriot, who is off to a .312/.392/.391 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) start for the first-place Cubs (tied with the Cardinals as of 5/25). In it he wrote:
“Theriot has fooled us before. He was hitting more than .300 as late as May 19 last year before eventually slumping to .266. A player who relies heavily as Theriot does on singles (81% of his hits) is unlikely to sustain such as fast start, though Theriot’s improved plate discipline should keep him from slipping too far.”
Silver’s verdict was that Theriot’s hot start was a “Fluke,” although he did point out that Theriot should not slip too far. Do I agree with this? Yes and no. Here why I disagree:
1. Last season was Theriot’s first full season in the major leagues, where he played in 148 games. Yes, Theriot did slump down the stretch last season (hitting .202 in September and October) and ended up batting .266/.326/.346 for the year, but it was the first time in his professional career that Theriot played in more than 130 games (which he did in 2002 as a member of the Lansing Lugnuts). It’s safe to say Theriot hit the wall down the stretch, but this year he turned 28, so hopefully he will be peaking this season and understands what it takes to play 162 games. Is it likely Theriot will keep his BA above .300 for the whole year? Unlikely, but I don’t expect him to hit .266. Expect .280-.290 from him because …
2. Theriot excelled in his final two minor league stops. Although there isn’t always a strong correlation between minor league and major league performance, Theriot’s final two seasons in the minor leagues suggest that he has the ability to hit above .300. In 2005 at AA West Tennessee (120 games), Theriot hit .304/.369/.391 and put up a nearly identical stat line during the 2006 season in 73 games at AAA Iowa (.304/. 367/.379) before being called up to the Cubs. So is this hot start somewhat of a surprise? Yes, but he did shows flashes of potential in the minors.
However, there is a definite reason to put faith in Silver’s predictions, including that fact that:
1. Theriot is a career .271 hitter in the minor leagues. Theriot’s final two stops in the minor leagues (AA West Tennessee and AAA Iowa) were his two best seasons in the minors, and prior to those two seasons of .300+ batting, Theriot never hit above .273 at any of his previous minor league stops. The only thing that is positive is that this .273 was in 2004 with the Daytona Cubs, which suggests that the light might have come on for Theriot in his final three minor league seasons. If you take out his first three minor league seasons, Theriot’s career batting average from 2004-06 (spanning 1,058 at-bats) is .294, which is something a lot of Cubs fans would love to see.
It is necessary to point out that Theriot’s pitches-per plate appearance are up from last season (3.53 in 2007 and 3.68 in 2008), and he already has drawn 23 walks after getting 49 all of last season. As a Cubs fan, I hope Theriot can keep up his hot start, but I’m expecting a line near .280/.355/.375. It’s not spectacular, but considering the other bats around him, it might be enough to get the Cubs in the postseason. Is Silver right in that Theriot is a fluke? Yes and no. He won’t hit .320, but he won’t be a .260 hitter either.
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